At this point I am still cautious. As much as popular opinion is turning against Obama and the Democrats, I would like to see a break down of congressional districts to really see if that will happen.
I am growing ever more optimistic, especially with that pledge being circulated among Republicans to try and make it so that only *conservatives* get money from the NRCC, etc. and not just someone w/an "r" after their name.
Pretty daring prediction....and I just don't see it happening. But Morris did have caveats: IF Giuliana runds, IF Hoeven runs in ND.....and then we have 'chances' in two other states.
More realistically, I think the GOP will come close to taking the House back or MAYBE even take it back (if inflation comes back by the fall of 2010). But the Senate? I just don't see where the seats are. I predict we can pick up four easily, but may lose New Hampshire. So a pick-up of 3 is possible....and up to 6 probably if Obambi keeps governing like an ingenue.
Morris has a good point, though, in that Obama's failures to deliver for the populist Left may hurt him. But the question is: will it dry up his money (Soros, SEIU, et al)? Or his support in the MSM? If it does, then, yes 6 or even 7-8 Senate seats are possible, depending on who runs. But 10? I don't see it. And Biden would still break a tie...unless Lieberman flips sides.
No, the real takeover possibility is in the House. But I hope it doesn't happen. The press would then paint the new Congress as "obstructionist" and Obama would have someone to blame for his failures. The best scenario is for the GOP to come very close to taking over - but still leave Pelosi in charge. If the Dems only have a 1-3 seat majority in the House, they will be able to get NOTHING done, because we can always count on a handful of "blue dogs" on any given issue. THIS, plus some nice gains in the Senate that would chill the speed and recklessness of Obama's appointments, would be the best outcome for 2010.
And, happily, that is much more likely to occur than Morris' rosy scenario.
2 comments:
At this point I am still cautious. As much as popular opinion is turning against Obama and the Democrats, I would like to see a break down of congressional districts to really see if that will happen.
I am growing ever more optimistic, especially with that pledge being circulated among Republicans to try and make it so that only *conservatives* get money from the NRCC, etc. and not just someone w/an "r" after their name.
Pretty daring prediction....and I just don't see it happening. But Morris did have caveats: IF Giuliana runds, IF Hoeven runs in ND.....and then we have 'chances' in two other states.
More realistically, I think the GOP will come close to taking the House back or MAYBE even take it back (if inflation comes back by the fall of 2010). But the Senate? I just don't see where the seats are. I predict we can pick up four easily, but may lose New Hampshire. So a pick-up of 3 is possible....and up to 6 probably if Obambi keeps governing like an ingenue.
Morris has a good point, though, in that Obama's failures to deliver for the populist Left may hurt him. But the question is: will it dry up his money (Soros, SEIU, et al)? Or his support in the MSM? If it does, then, yes 6 or even 7-8 Senate seats are possible, depending on who runs. But 10? I don't see it. And Biden would still break a tie...unless Lieberman flips sides.
No, the real takeover possibility is in the House. But I hope it doesn't happen. The press would then paint the new Congress as "obstructionist" and Obama would have someone to blame for his failures. The best scenario is for the GOP to come very close to taking over - but still leave Pelosi in charge. If the Dems only have a 1-3 seat majority in the House, they will be able to get NOTHING done, because we can always count on a handful of "blue dogs" on any given issue. THIS, plus some nice gains in the Senate that would chill the speed and recklessness of Obama's appointments, would be the best outcome for 2010.
And, happily, that is much more likely to occur than Morris' rosy scenario.
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